BREAKING: Why Israel Suddenly Fears Iran’s Missiles More Than Its Nuclear Programme

Please Kindly Pay Attention: If you’re reading on PHOENIX, please click the “Read Original” button at the top right to view the full article.

Tensions in the Middle East have taken a fresh turn after a new Israeli analysis claimed that Iran’s ballistic missile programme may now pose a bigger long-term danger to Israel than Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The warning came in an analysis published on Monday, May 11, 2026, by The Jerusalem Post, where Israeli officials and analysts reportedly expressed concern that Iran could quickly rebuild and expand its missile stockpile despite recent military strikes.

According to The Jerusalem Post, the Israeli military believes the main purpose of the recent conflict with Iran was not primarily to stop a nuclear weapon programme, but to reduce Iran’s growing ballistic missile capacity before it reached what Israel considered a dangerous threshold.

The report stated that Iran had been producing between 200 and 300 ballistic missiles every month before the war. Israeli officials reportedly feared that delaying military action could have allowed Iran to increase its stockpile from about 2,500 long-range missiles to as many as 6,000 within a year.

Israeli military leaders were said to be particularly worried that such a large missile arsenal could overwhelm Israel’s air defence systems during a future conflict.

The analysis also revealed growing disagreement between Israeli intelligence estimates and leaked CIA assessments regarding how much damage was actually done to Iran’s missile infrastructure during the war.

While some U.S. intelligence estimates reportedly claimed only a limited portion of Iran’s missile launchers and missiles were destroyed, Israeli officials argued that the damage was much more significant, especially to long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel.

The report explained that one major source of confusion is the broad use of the term “ballistic missiles.” According to the analysis, Iran possesses both short-range missiles that can strike nearby countries and advanced long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel from deep inside Iranian territory.

Israeli officials reportedly believe that even if Iran still possesses many short-range missiles, its long-range missile capability suffered heavier damage during the conflict.

However, concerns remain that Iran could rebuild again within a few years, especially if foreign assistance helps restore production capacity.

The report also suggested that future tensions between Israel and Iran may increasingly centre on missile limits rather than nuclear negotiations alone.

According to the analysis, Israeli officials now believe the ballistic missile threat could force another military confrontation in the future if no informal understanding is reached on limiting Iran’s long-range missile arsenal.

The development comes as international attention remains focused on ongoing negotiations involving Iran, the U.S., and regional security concerns across the Middle East.